After the US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, gold may start to weaken further. The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen soon, which could keep oil prices high, lift inflation expectations and bond yields, and add pressure on gold and risk assets. Markets may react strongly to Middle East headlines again this week. Gold’s recent rebound from around $4,100 was supported by a weaker US dollar and lower yields, but right now, geopolitics is the main driver, while

US core PCE came in line with expectations, while today’s core CPI, CPI, and CPI y/y all came lower than forecast. This weaker US inflation data is supporting euro strength, along with improving energy security conditions in Europe. Technically, the 1.1740 area has turned into immediate resistance, which was previously a swing low. A pullback from this level could create buying opportunities targeting the 1.1800 area. On the downside, 1.1713 is the immediate support, while 1.

USD/CAD is sitting near the important 200-day moving average after breaking its bullish trend earlier this week, making today’s US inflation data and Canada jobs report key for the next move. A stronger US CPI together with weak Canadian employment would likely push the pair higher, while softer US inflation and stronger Canada jobs data could send it lower. Canada’s previous jobs report showed a sharp drop in employment and rising unemployment, and markets are watching wheth

JPY is currently weak mainly because risk sentiment has improved after easing geopolitical tensions and a better energy security outlook. When markets feel more stable, traders usually move away from safe-haven currencies like the yen and shift toward higher-yielding currencies such as the EUR and GBP. This is one reason why EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are trading near their highs. At the same time, USD has weakened compared to EUR and GBP because markets are focusing on softer US ra

Upcoming US inflation data such as CPI and core PCE could decide the next move in gold. If inflation comes in higher than expected, yields may rise and gold could fall. If inflation is weaker than expected, yields may drop and gold could move higher. At the same time, developments around the US–Iran ceasefire are still important and can influence market direction. From a technical view, gold is currently trading in a clear range between $4700 support and $4800 to $4850 resist

Comments from Donald Trump about suspending possible military action against Iran have reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar. EUR/USD has moved strongly higher and is now trading around 1.1680, well above the earlier rectangle breakout zone near 1.1550. The upside move has been supported mainly by de-escalation hopes in the Iran conflict, which weakened the US dollar across major currency pairs and helped strengthen the euro. Technically, the breakout above the rectangl

USD has weakened after de-escalation signals in the Middle East, including comments from Donald Trump about suspending possible military action against Iran. This reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar across major pairs and helped push USD/JPY lower. Importantly, the move happened without intervention from the Bank of Japan, showing the decline was mainly driven by improving market sentiment rather than policy action. Technically,USD/JPY has dropped sharply to around 15

GBP/USD is under pressure near 1.3220 as a stronger US dollar and rising risk aversion continue to weigh on the pair. Higher oil prices linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed US Treasury yields higher and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, supporting the dollar. Sterling remains weak despite a more cautious tone from the Bank of England. Policymakers are moving toward a wait-and-see approach as en

The US dollar still looks supported mainly because of the strong move in USD/JPY. The 160.00 level remains a key focus, as traders believe the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance of Japan could step in if the yen weakens too much. A similar intervention happened in 2024 near this level and helped stabilise the yen, partly supported by softer US inflation data at that time. However, there is also a risk that authorities may allow the pair to move higher, just like in 202

Gold rose about 4% over the week, even though it dropped around 1.7% on Friday. The outlook now depends heavily on developments in the Iran conflict, especially after Trump gave Iran 48 hours to make a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Even though geopolitical risks usually support gold, the recent strength in the US dollar and rising bond yields are limiting upside. Higher oil prices are increasing inflation concerns, which keeps expectations of higher interest rates for