USD/JPY’s recent breakout was driven by domestic headlines questioning how fast the BOJ would raise rates, but that move is already fading. BOJ tightening expectations remain in place after Ueda signalled hikes are still possible in March or April, and Tokyo inflation came in slightly stronger. Yields are falling and rate differentials could start to narrow. That creates risk for yen funded carry trades. If global growth slows and yield gaps shrink, the yen could strengthen,

The US Dollar Index is showing signs of a possible short-term top after failing several times near 98. This supports the idea that the recent rise may only be a correction, with the bigger trend still pointing lower, possibly below 95. There's an ascending triangle forming in the daily time frame. This pattern in a downtrend suggests trend reversal. However, support around 97.50 is still holding. If the price breaks above 98, the short-term bearish view is no longer valid, an

The New Zealand dollar remains supported by strong risk appetite and improving domestic data. Inflation expectations have risen to 2.93%, cost pressures are strong, and wage expectations are at their highest level since 2024. This raises doubts about whether the RBNZ can really wait until late in the year to lift rates. Markets are still pricing only a small chance of a July hike and around a 40% chance in September, with a December move not fully priced in. After 325 basis p

Japanese markets turned volatile after reports said Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed concerns about further rate hikes to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. This created uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s policy path. At the same time, China announced new export restrictions on dual-use goods and rare earth materials to selected Japanese firms, adding geopolitical pressure and further weakening the yen. Rate expectations shifted quickly. Chances of a March hike dropped to be

GBP/USD formed a falling wedge early in 2026 and broke out strongly, rallying to fresh four-year highs. The move was partly driven by weakness in USD/JPY, but as the US dollar recovered, the pair pulled back. Since those highs, another falling wedge has developed, similar to the current structure in EUR/USD. This keeps the door open for upside potential if the dollar weakens again. Recently, 1.3500 provided support and triggered a bounce, while 1.3568 acted as strong resistan

Gold has regained strength after breaking above 5100, shifting the near-term bias back to bullish. The move is supported by renewed safe-haven demand and fresh pressure on the US dollar following the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs and the announcement of new global levies under Section 122. Technically, the breakout above 5100 is important and gives bulls a clear level to defend. Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD are supportive, but short-term signals sho

EUR/USD is sitting in a descending triangle, with momentum indicators slowly weakening. RSI is just below 50, and MACD has rolled over but is not yet negative, showing neutral to slightly bearish momentum. A recent doji candle reflects market indecision. The key level to watch is the 50-day moving average near 1.1750. A clear break and close below this zone would strengthen the bearish case, opening the door toward 1.1700 and possibly the 200-day moving average. A clean break

The broader uptrend in AUD/JPY is still intact, and dip buyers have stepped in each time support was tested. Risk appetite has been a key driver, sometimes even more important than rate expectations. AUD/JPY bounced firmly from trend support, holds above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, and the RSI indicator supports further upside. A move above 109.66 could open the door back toward 110.80 and trend continuation. Price is testing the uptrending channel started in October

The US dollar jumped after the FOMC minutes showed a hawkish tone. Officials warned that rates could rise again if inflation stays high. From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index is showing improving upside momentum after a bullish false break below 96 on the weekly chart. However, it is approaching a critical resistance cluster around 97.77 to 98.00, which includes prior swing levels and the 20- and 50-day moving averages. A break above this zone could trigger deeper

UK inflation has cooled, with CPI falling from 3.4% to 3.0%, which has revived expectations that the Bank of England could start cutting rates as early as March 2026. At the same time, rate cut optimism in the UK is likely to clash with ongoing rate hold sentiment from the Federal Reserve, creating a fragile environment for GBPUSD around the 1.35 area. GBPUSD is moving in a downtrend channel, reversing from a multi-year high of 1.38700. Technically, GBPUSD is still holding ab