If the Strait of Hormuz opens normally, oil prices may fall, and the US dollar could weaken slightly. This may help EURUSD and GBPUSD move higher and correct some recent losses. For the euro, there is also some support from improving fiscal conditions. France reduced its budget deficit from 5.8% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2025, which is a positive signal for the Eurozone economy. This adds to the chance of a short-term recovery in EURUSD if geopolitical risks ease. However, EUR/USD i

Trump's decision to pause strikes on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days reduces immediate tension. This is slightly negative for oil in the short term because the risk of a sudden supply shock has been delayed. However, the main risk for oil is still the Strait of Hormuz. As long as shipping problems continue there, oil prices are likely to stay supported. If the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, oil prices should slowly stabilise. If the situation worsens again after the 10-

GBP/USD is under slight pressure after UK inflation came in at 3.00%, which was expected and unchanged. Inflation is slowly stabilising, and this has increased expectations that the Bank of England may consider rate cuts in the future. This is weakening support for the pound. At the same time, the US dollar remains strong because the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer, and safe-haven demand is also supporting the dollar. This policy differenc

The US dollar is trying to move higher again in the short term. The price is moving inside a bullish channel. If the DXY breaks above 100.50, the next targets could be 101 and 102.40. Support is near 98.65 and 98.33. A drop below 98.24 would weaken the bullish setup. However, the bigger picture is still cautious. The weekly chart suggests the dollar may still be in a larger downtrend that started after the 2022 high; RSI is near overbought levels, and this current rise could

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under strong short-term selling pressure after falling about 12% in the last five sessions. One major reason is rising U.S. bond yields. After the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75% with a neutral outlook through 2027, U.S. 10-year yields moved close to 4.4%, making bonds more attractive than gold, which does not pay interest. At the same time, higher yields are supporting the U.S. dollar near the 100 level on the DXY index. A stronger dollar usually w

Ali Nikzad (A key figure in Iranian politics) ruled out negotiations with Donald Trump, which reduces hopes for a near-term diplomatic solution between Iran and the United States. This statement increases uncertainty in the market and raises the risk of further tensions in the Middle East. As a result, oil prices are likely to stay supported because supply disruption fears remain high. At the same time, the US dollar may remain firm as investors stay cautious. Overall, the co

USD/JPY remains close to the key 160.00 level, which has acted as strong resistance over the past two years and has previously triggered intervention concerns from Japan. Comments from Atsushi Mimura suggested authorities are ready to act if exchange rate moves become excessive, hinting that intervention is possible if the pair rises further. Higher US interest rates continue to support USD/JPY because traders earn positive carry by holding long positions. This keeps the over

Donald Trump announced that the United States will postpone planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days after what he described as productive talks with Iran. This signals a possible short-term easing of tensions in the Middle East. Less immediate threat to energy infrastructure reduces supply disruption fears, which can push oil lower or limit further spikes. If tensions cool, investors often move away from safe-haven assets like the US do

EUR/USD is starting to stabilize and may be forming a short-term bottom, even though energy risks and geopolitical tensions are still high. The market now seems to believe the worst energy shock scenario may not happen, and much of that risk is already priced in. Even after strong warnings from Donald Trump and threats from Iran, the euro has stayed relatively stable. This shows the pair is holding support and not falling sharply. Recent market drops are mostly happening in a

Rising tensions in the Iran conflict and strong statements from Donald Trump are reducing hopes of de-escalation. Trump has warned that the US could take further action, including possible strikes or even plans to control Iran’s Kharg Island to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This keeps uncertainty high and increases the risk of further escalation. As a result, oil prices are rising. Higher oil prices are adding to inflation pressure, which is pushing expectation