The US dollar is experiencing a decisive loss of momentum, with recent price action reinforcing a broader structural breakdown that has been years in the making. What initially appeared as a correction is increasingly resembling the continuation of a multi-year bear trend. While short-term rebounds remain possible, the balance of risks continues to tilt toward further downside as macro, positioning, and political dynamics align against sustained dollar strength. Macro Backdro

The upcoming FOMC meeting is unlikely to deliver a change in interest rates, but it carries elevated event risk due to growing political pressure on the Federal Reserve. With rates expected to remain on hold, attention is shifting toward Fed communication and the possibility that President Trump could nominate a new Fed Chair. This political overlay has meaningful implications for the US dollar, particularly with EUR/USD testing a major technical inflection point near 1.1920.

EUR/USD has delivered a technically significant bullish breakout, but momentum has stalled at a historically important resistance zone near 1.1900. The pause reflects a broader tension in the US dollar, which is being pulled between policy-driven tolerance for weakness and resilient macro fundamentals. While momentum indicators remain constructive, price action suggests caution is warranted near current levels. Macro Backdrop: USD Caught Between Policy and Data The US dollar

USD/JPY has experienced a sharp downside break following an extended period of one-way positioning. While speculation around official intervention persists, confirmation remains absent and, from a trading perspective, secondary. What matters now is how positioning and carry dynamics evolve following the breakdown, particularly whether rallies are met with renewed demand or used as exit opportunities by longer-term longs. Macro and Policy Context The recent sell-off developed

GBP/USD has staged a sharp rebound after a three-week decline, reversing higher from a key Fibonacci support zone. The move has produced an outside weekly reversal and pushed price back into a critical resistance area near recent January highs. How the pair behaves around this zone will be decisive in determining whether the recovery can extend or if the broader corrective structure remains intact. Technical Structure The recent pullback found support at the 38.2% retracement

Gold has delivered a strong upside performance this week, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session and advancing more than 7% overall. Price action is now approaching the psychologically significant $5,000 per ounce level. The rally continues to be supported by weak substitute asset returns, particularly falling US Treasury yields, alongside fragile market confidence. As long as these conditions persist, the broader bias for gold remains constructive. Macro Backdrop:

The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged in January, holding the overnight call rate at 0.75% in a widely expected decision. While inflation language was modestly firmed and growth forecasts were upgraded, markets treated the outcome as largely neutral. With rate expectations already well priced, attention now turns to Governor Ueda’s press conference, which may prove more influential for near-term USD/JPY direction. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY remains in a well-defi

Market sentiment has stabilised following a brief period of USD weakness tied to geopolitical uncertainty. President Trump’s more constructive remarks on the US economy and the removal of near-term tariff threats have helped restore confidence, allowing the US dollar to find firmer footing. As a result, GBP/USD and USD/CAD have both rebounded from key technical zones, with price now approaching areas that will determine whether broader trends reassert or consolidation extends

Despite intermittent bouts of US dollar softness at the start of the year, Japanese yen weakness continues to stand out as the dominant FX theme. This remains notable given the sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields, which would normally offer the currency some support. Instead, the yen has continued to underperform, reinforcing bullish trends across USD/JPY and the major JPY crosses. While USD strength has been uneven elsewhere, USD/JPY remains one of the most constru

USD/CAD has delivered a notable bullish reversal after probing below the 1.3800 level, supported by a clear improvement in the US macro and political backdrop. Concerns around Federal Reserve independence have eased, geopolitical tensions linked to Greenland have cooled, and market pricing now reflects fewer Fed rate cuts in 2026. With technical momentum neutral, price action around the 200-day moving average remains the key driver for near-term direction. Fed Independence Ri