EUR/USD has now broken above the rectangle resistance and is trading near the 1.1500 area, which confirms short-term bullish momentum after peace expectations improved following signals from Donald J. Trump about ending the war, even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This breakout supports further upside in EUR/USD in the near term, as markets are reacting positively to easing conflict risks. However, negotiations are still not confirmed, and high oil prices plus a stro

limited,Gold is trying to recover after a sharp fall, but the bounce looks weak and may be a dead cat bounce. Options traders are still positioning for more downside, which supports a bearish outlook. Oil prices remain high and the US dollar is strong, mainly because tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue and reopening it is still uncertain. Comments from Donald Trump about possibly ending the conflict without reopening Hormuz suggest inflation risks could stay elevate

Recent updates from Donald J. Trump show that the US is discussing negotiations with Iran, but there is still no confirmed deal yet. At the same time, the US has delayed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure again, which suggests both sides are trying to avoid a bigger conflict. Strong warning statements from both countries appear mostly aimed at keeping a strong political position in public. For markets, the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest risk. Shipping is still not

USD/JPY is still supported because higher oil prices hurt Japan more than the US. The US produces its own energy, but Japan depends on imports, which increases inflation and slows growth. This keeps the gap between US and Japanese interest rates wide and supports the pair moving higher. Markets are also showing clear yen weakness, not just dollar strength. Japan already has very high debt, an ageing population, and rising bond yields, which is increasing pressure on the yen.

Recent reports suggesting that both sides are preparing for negotiations are partly correct , but the latest updates show the situation is still very uncertain. The US has delayed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for about 10 days to allow talks more time, yet Iran continues to deny direct negotiations , and military activity has not stopped. At the same time, the biggest issue for markets remains the Strait of Hormuz . Shipping through the route is still heavily disru

If the Strait of Hormuz opens normally, oil prices may fall, and the US dollar could weaken slightly. This may help EURUSD and GBPUSD move higher and correct some recent losses. For the euro, there is also some support from improving fiscal conditions. France reduced its budget deficit from 5.8% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2025, which is a positive signal for the Eurozone economy. This adds to the chance of a short-term recovery in EURUSD if geopolitical risks ease. However, EUR/USD i

Trump's decision to pause strikes on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days reduces immediate tension. This is slightly negative for oil in the short term because the risk of a sudden supply shock has been delayed. However, the main risk for oil is still the Strait of Hormuz. As long as shipping problems continue there, oil prices are likely to stay supported. If the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, oil prices should slowly stabilise. If the situation worsens again after the 10-

GBP/USD is under slight pressure after UK inflation came in at 3.00%, which was expected and unchanged. Inflation is slowly stabilising, and this has increased expectations that the Bank of England may consider rate cuts in the future. This is weakening support for the pound. At the same time, the US dollar remains strong because the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer, and safe-haven demand is also supporting the dollar. This policy differenc

The US dollar is trying to move higher again in the short term. The price is moving inside a bullish channel. If the DXY breaks above 100.50, the next targets could be 101 and 102.40. Support is near 98.65 and 98.33. A drop below 98.24 would weaken the bullish setup. However, the bigger picture is still cautious. The weekly chart suggests the dollar may still be in a larger downtrend that started after the 2022 high; RSI is near overbought levels, and this current rise could

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under strong short-term selling pressure after falling about 12% in the last five sessions. One major reason is rising U.S. bond yields. After the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75% with a neutral outlook through 2027, U.S. 10-year yields moved close to 4.4%, making bonds more attractive than gold, which does not pay interest. At the same time, higher yields are supporting the U.S. dollar near the 100 level on the DXY index. A stronger dollar usually w