At this point last year, EUR/JPY appeared to be setting up for a clear bearish year ahead. The macro backdrop strongly favored that view. Europe’s economy was slowing, inflation pressures were easing, and markets were confident the ECB would deliver multiple rate cuts. Japan, meanwhile, looked ready to finally exit decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, with expectations building for meaningful Bank of Japan rate hikes. That policy divergence is exactly what currency traders

Market risk appetite surged and then abruptly reversed following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April, highlighting how sensitive sentiment remains to policy shocks. What began as a tactical dip-buying response quickly evolved into a broader justification for risk exposure, driven by themes such as AI and growth narratives that are now increasingly stretched. Although markets can continue to support elevated risk-taking if fundamentals meet expectations, the assump

As markets move into the final stretch of the year, activity remains surprisingly eventful despite the holiday backdrop. Even with reduced participation ahead of Christmas, several key themes are shaping price action across currencies and commodities. Japanese Yen in Focus: Verbal Intervention Escalates The Japanese yen remains one of the most important stories in the FX market. After a prolonged period of weakness, recent comments from the Bank of Japan and senior policymake

Gold surged to fresh record highs as rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of further U.S. rate cuts strengthened safe-haven demand. While the broader trend remains firmly bullish, overbought conditions suggest the potential for short-term consolidation before the next move higher.

EUR/USD opened the week with gains of over 0.4%, signalling renewed bullish momentum for the euro as 2025 comes to a close. The move is largely driven by central bank dynamics that continue to weigh on the U.S. dollar. Central Bank Snapshot The ECB ended the year by keeping rates at 2.00% and signalling a neutral stance that may extend into 2026. Markets largely expect no change at the February meeting, reinforcing policy stability in the euro area. In contrast, the Federal R

AUD/USD is up about 0.95% this month, broadly in line with its average December gain. While positive Decembers can deliver strong upside, outcomes are often choppy and unreliable, making a late-month breakout above 0.67 unlikely. From a technical view, risks are building. A weak monthly close near or below 0.65 could form a bearish shooting star and hint at a double top near the yearly highs, especially with January seasonality typically negative. Short-term season

EUR/USD technical breakdown using harmonic structure, retracement depth, and price action confirmation.

Softer US PPI and retail sales, and Dec fed cut expectation made the GBP/USD rally and make the CD leg, see the graph below. UK Autumn Budget today is pushing GBP/USD lower from D, however, downward move is more likely to make a retracement like BC, and then the pair may continue upside unless it breaks below C. Make sure you understand a valid breakout. We are trading it to short side as the downward retracement is in progress. Then, we may wait for a bullish price action go

Weekly timeframe suggests bullish move On the daily timeframe, there is a suggestion of a bearish move, but it is not as strong as the bullish move indicated by the weekly timeframe. This is because the weekly timeframe tends to attract institutional investors, and the three inside down pattern on the daily chart is imperfect compared to the three inside up pattern on the weekly timeframe. We will base today's EUR/USD trading on the price action observed on the H1 time frame.