The euro has weakened as investors move back into the US dollar for safety, reversing the earlier “Sell America” trade. At the same time, Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, increasing expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates, with markets now pricing in about two rate hikes by the end of the year. However, rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict are creating risks for the Eurozone economy. If the conflict continues and disrupts oil shipments throu

The Australian dollar has been strong in recent weeks, but the rally is starting to lose momentum. Even though AUD/USD is still holding above the 0.70 level, there are signs of caution in the market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are a major factor. While higher commodity prices can support the Australian dollar, the 35% surge in oil prices could also reduce global risk appetite, which may pressure risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie. Because of this, trading

USD/JPY is moving higher as traders position ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, with the pair approaching the key 158 level. The rally has been supported by a stronger US dollar, mild risk off sentiment, and rising oil prices driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. As long as energy prices remain elevated and uncertainty persists, markets are likely to stay cautious. From a technical pers

USD/JPY is showing mixed signals after failing to extend higher despite strong support from fundamentals. Energy prices appear to have become the main short-term driver for USD/JPY. Because Japan relies heavily on imported energy, rising energy prices usually weaken the yen, while easing energy pressures can support it. The broader macro backdrop still supports the US dollar. Recent US data has been strong, particularly the ISM services report and ADP employment figures, rein

EUR/USD remains under pressure as energy risks and Fed repricing drive the near-term outlook. The recent bounce came after reports of possible diplomatic outreach from Iran and US assurances to protect energy shipping routes. However, there is still no real de-escalation, and the conflict continues. As long as the energy shock persists and the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, the euro stays vulnerable. Higher energy prices are inflationary and have already pushed markets t

Gold had a big rally from its February low but is now losing momentum after failing to close above the key 5343 to 5378 resistance zone. Even though price briefly hit 5419, buyers could not hold the breakout. The metal has since dropped nearly 8% from the recent high and is now testing important support near 5031, which is the 38.2% retracement of the February rally. If buyers defend 5031, the broader uptrend can remain intact. However, a break below this level would expose 4

The US dollar and USD/JPY broke higher at the start of the week after geopolitical tensions increased. USD/JPY remains a key driver of the broader dollar index, and its moves often spill over into EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, USD/JPY is now close to the 160.00 level, which has previously triggered warnings of intervention from Japanese officials. Chasing USD/JPY higher near 160.00 offers weaker risk reward. Similar sharp pullbacks happened in late January and again in Februa

Markets are starting the week on edge after the US and Israel carried out coordinated strikes on Iran, reportedly killing its Supreme Leader and other senior officials. This sharply increases uncertainty around regional stability, oil supply, shipping routes and overall risk sentiment. Traders will be watching closely for retaliation or further military action, as headlines are likely to drive price action. For the Australian dollar, the timing is sensitive. It has had a stro

This week is packed with important data, but geopolitics, especially tensions in the Middle East, may have a bigger impact on markets than economic numbers. The week starts with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI today, which gives an early look at business activity, growth momentum, supply chain conditions, and possible signals for Federal Reserve policy. However, markets may not react strongly to it as attention is likely to stay on geopolitical risks. On Tuesday, Eurozone CPI wi

USD/CHF is trading near its lowest levels in more than ten years, just above the 2011 close low around 0.7669. After a sharp drop from the January highs, price has been stuck in a tight February range, with sellers unable to secure a clear weekly close below key support. This long consolidation suggests a larger breakout may be close. If USD/CHF breaks and closes below 0.7669, it would signal a continuation of the broader downtrend, with downside targets near 0.7537 and 0.741