Despite intermittent bouts of US dollar softness at the start of the year, Japanese yen weakness continues to stand out as the dominant FX theme. This remains notable given the sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields, which would normally offer the currency some support. Instead, the yen has continued to underperform, reinforcing bullish trends across USD/JPY and the major JPY crosses. While USD strength has been uneven elsewhere, USD/JPY remains one of the most constru

USD/CAD has delivered a notable bullish reversal after probing below the 1.3800 level, supported by a clear improvement in the US macro and political backdrop. Concerns around Federal Reserve independence have eased, geopolitical tensions linked to Greenland have cooled, and market pricing now reflects fewer Fed rate cuts in 2026. With technical momentum neutral, price action around the 200-day moving average remains the key driver for near-term direction. Fed Independence Ri

GBP/USD and USD/JPY Forecast: Two Trades to Watch GBP/USD and USD/JPY are both entering short-term inflection zones as markets digest fresh UK inflation data and position ahead of President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum. Modest US dollar recovery has paused recent trends, leaving both pairs vulnerable to directional follow-through depending on political messaging and upcoming central bank communication. GBP/USD Outlook: CPI Data Absorbed, Dollar in Focus GBP/USD

AUD/USD and NZD/USD have been among the strongest FX performers this week as broad US dollar weakness lifted high-beta currencies. However, late-session price action on Tuesday showed signs of hesitation, with both pairs stalling at technically significant levels. While momentum remains constructive, the failure to extend gains raises the risk of a near-term pullback should the US dollar find support. Broader FX Context Markets rarely move in straight lines, particularly afte

As 2025 began, the US dollar entered the year with strong momentum, supported by the US exceptionalism narrative and expectations of continued USD outperformance. EUR/USD was widely expected to push toward parity, and bullish USD positioning was crowded. However, less than two weeks into the new year, both DXY and EUR/USD marked key inflection points that would go on to define much of the year’s price action. Since then, the broader USD complex has transitioned into a prolong

Gold continues to trade at record highs, extending its rally into the first half of Tuesday as investors lean further into safe-haven assets. The move higher has been driven by a sharp deterioration in global risk sentiment, with renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe adding to uncertainty. With both political and currency dynamics aligned, the near-term gold forecast remains constructive. Macro and Geopolitical Drivers The latest leg higher in gol

The US dollar came under broad selling pressure after President Trump reignited trade-war risks by threatening tariffs on countries opposing his Greenland proposal. Markets appear to be treating the rhetoric as destabilising and inflationary rather than growth-positive, prompting renewed USD selling across major pairs. Despite the US public holiday muting volumes, price action and technical signals point to a meaningful shift in near-term dollar momentum. Macro Backdrop Trump

Summary The Japanese yen continues to underperform even in conditions that would typically support it, highlighting a clear shift in what is driving price action. Domestic fiscal concerns linked to Japan’s upcoming lower house election are dominating sentiment, while persistent carry demand is adding further pressure. With these forces working together, the broader bias for USD/JPY remains skewed to the upside. Risk-Off Dynamics Losing Influence Recent price behaviour has cal

EUR/USD is firming as renewed Washington-driven volatility weighs on the US dollar. President Trump’s latest tariff threat against several European nations has revived elements of the earlier “Sell America” trade, prompting a pullback in the dollar and relative underperformance in US equity futures. The euro has responded by rebounding from its 200-day moving average, with price action now focused on whether this episode fades or extends in the days ahead. Macro Backdrop The

The US Dollar has extended its late-December rebound for a third consecutive week, recovering nearly 1.8% from the Christmas Eve low. This advance has now carried DXY into a key Fibonacci retracement zone, where upside momentum is being tested. Price action from here will be important in determining whether this rebound develops into a more durable base or stalls into consolidation. Technical Outlook The recent rally has retraced a meaningful portion of the November decline,