The March NFP report came in stronger than expected, with 178K jobs added compared to the 65K forecast, and the unemployment rate improved to 4.3%. However, wage growth slowed to 0.2%, which slightly reduces inflation pressure. Overall, the strong jobs data support the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates soon, especially with inflation still above target. However, market reaction has been limited despite the positive NFP report, showing there is st

Markets expect the March NFP report to show about 65K new jobs, 0.3% monthly wage growth, and unemployment at 4.4%.Even so, Middle East tensions and the risk of a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz are currently the main drivers of markets. Because of this, geopolitical developments may have a bigger impact on the US dollar than the jobs data unless there is a large surprise. With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, markets now see about an 80% chanc

Outlook for GBP/USD is mixed, with the pound facing pressure from rising energy costs, weaker growth expectations, and uncertainty around how the Bank of England will respond to higher inflation. UK inflation is expected to rise toward 3.5% to 4.0%, mainly due to the energy shock, but slowing growth increases the risk of a stagflation environment. While markets are currently pricing possible rate hikes, the more likely scenario is that the BoE pauses and waits for clearer sig

Expectations that the conflict involving Donald J. Trump and the Strait of Hormuz may ease are supporting the euro. Reduced risk of oil supply disruption and weaker support for continued conflict from major Western countries are improving sentiment toward Europe, which helps EUR/USD move higher. Also, euro area inflation keeps supporting expectations of future ECB tightening; the pair is likely to stay supported and gradually move higher. Technically, the recent bearish move

The US dollar outlook for April was slightly bearish because of its usual seasonal weakness and improving global risk sentiment. However, the latest statement from the Iranian Parliament suggesting the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen and that negotiations are not taking place increases geopolitical uncertainty. This raises safe haven demand and can support the US dollar in the short term instead of allowing it to weaken. From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index is s

EUR/USD moved higher to around 1.1590 as peace expectations improved after signals from Donald J. Trump about ending the conflict. Also, there is news about the UAE joining the military effort to open the Strait of Hormuz. Better risk sentiment weakened the US dollar and supported the euro, while rising inflation expectations in the euro area also increased chances of future ECB rate hikes, adding further support to the pair. Technically, the breakout above the rectangle enco

EUR/USD has now broken above the rectangle resistance and is trading near the 1.1500 area, which confirms short-term bullish momentum after peace expectations improved following signals from Donald J. Trump about ending the war, even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This breakout supports further upside in EUR/USD in the near term, as markets are reacting positively to easing conflict risks. However, negotiations are still not confirmed, and high oil prices plus a stro

limited,Gold is trying to recover after a sharp fall, but the bounce looks weak and may be a dead cat bounce. Options traders are still positioning for more downside, which supports a bearish outlook. Oil prices remain high and the US dollar is strong, mainly because tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue and reopening it is still uncertain. Comments from Donald Trump about possibly ending the conflict without reopening Hormuz suggest inflation risks could stay elevate

Recent updates from Donald J. Trump show that the US is discussing negotiations with Iran, but there is still no confirmed deal yet. At the same time, the US has delayed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure again, which suggests both sides are trying to avoid a bigger conflict. Strong warning statements from both countries appear mostly aimed at keeping a strong political position in public. For markets, the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest risk. Shipping is still not

USD/JPY is still supported because higher oil prices hurt Japan more than the US. The US produces its own energy, but Japan depends on imports, which increases inflation and slows growth. This keeps the gap between US and Japanese interest rates wide and supports the pair moving higher. Markets are also showing clear yen weakness, not just dollar strength. Japan already has very high debt, an ageing population, and rising bond yields, which is increasing pressure on the yen.