Markets are becoming more optimistic that Middle East tensions may ease after signals that US–Iran negotiations could restart. This has pressured the US dollar and oil, while supporting equities and risk assets. USD/JPY could move toward 1.56 if a lasting ceasefire is confirmed. Policy expectations are also weighing on the dollar. Markets expect the Federal Reserve may ease later this year, while other central banks, including the Bank of Japan, appear relatively more hawkish

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing weakness, with price heading toward a third straight weekly decline and a fourth consecutive daily drop, now about 2.6% below its yearly high. The earlier rally was rejected near the 100.15–100.42 resistance zone, which capped the upside move. Today’s PPI data came in negative, with core PPI m/m at 0.1% (below 0.4% forecast) and headline PPI m/m at 0.5% (below 1.1% forecast). This adds to the recent pressure on the dollar. Technically, DXY

Even though the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, markets are becoming more optimistic that US–Iran negotiations may continue and eventually lead to a deal. This optimism has reduced fears of a worst-case energy shock, helping oil prices pull back slightly and easing pressure on risk sentiment, which is limiting strong upside momentum in gold for now. At the same time, uncertainty around how quickly a deal can happen is still keeping inflation expectations and bond yields supp

50EUR/USD and GBP/USD moved higher after renewed optimism about a possible US–Iran deal, which reduced fears of energy supply disruption. As oil prices pulled back, both the US dollar and crude weakened, supporting the euro and pound since Europe is a major energy importer. Lower oil helped improve risk sentiment and pushed both pairs to fresh highs. Technically, EUR/USD broke above 1.1675 ( 50 & 200 DMA levels) and 1.1740, with 1.1740 now acting as support. If price holds ab

After the US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, gold may start to weaken further. The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen soon, which could keep oil prices high, lift inflation expectations and bond yields, and add pressure on gold and risk assets. Markets may react strongly to Middle East headlines again this week. Gold’s recent rebound from around $4,100 was supported by a weaker US dollar and lower yields, but right now, geopolitics is the main driver, while

US core PCE came in line with expectations, while today’s core CPI, CPI, and CPI y/y all came lower than forecast. This weaker US inflation data is supporting euro strength, along with improving energy security conditions in Europe. Technically, the 1.1740 area has turned into immediate resistance, which was previously a swing low. A pullback from this level could create buying opportunities targeting the 1.1800 area. On the downside, 1.1713 is the immediate support, while 1.

USD/CAD is sitting near the important 200-day moving average after breaking its bullish trend earlier this week, making today’s US inflation data and Canada jobs report key for the next move. A stronger US CPI together with weak Canadian employment would likely push the pair higher, while softer US inflation and stronger Canada jobs data could send it lower. Canada’s previous jobs report showed a sharp drop in employment and rising unemployment, and markets are watching wheth

JPY is currently weak mainly because risk sentiment has improved after easing geopolitical tensions and a better energy security outlook. When markets feel more stable, traders usually move away from safe-haven currencies like the yen and shift toward higher-yielding currencies such as the EUR and GBP. This is one reason why EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are trading near their highs. At the same time, USD has weakened compared to EUR and GBP because markets are focusing on softer US ra

Upcoming US inflation data such as CPI and core PCE could decide the next move in gold. If inflation comes in higher than expected, yields may rise and gold could fall. If inflation is weaker than expected, yields may drop and gold could move higher. At the same time, developments around the US–Iran ceasefire are still important and can influence market direction. From a technical view, gold is currently trading in a clear range between $4700 support and $4800 to $4850 resist

Comments from Donald Trump about suspending possible military action against Iran have reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar. EUR/USD has moved strongly higher and is now trading around 1.1680, well above the earlier rectangle breakout zone near 1.1550. The upside move has been supported mainly by de-escalation hopes in the Iran conflict, which weakened the US dollar across major currency pairs and helped strengthen the euro. Technically, the breakout above the rectangl