Fresh headlines that the Strait of Hormuz has been shut again, along with reports of a seized Iranian cargo ship and renewed threats from Donald Trump, have increased geopolitical tensions and added pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Higher oil prices are negative for both Europe and the UK because they are major energy importers, raising risks to growth. Despite this, market reactions remain limited as traders expect possible sudden policy or negotiation updates, which have re

Recent headlines from Abbas Araghchi (Iran's foreign minister) and Donald Trump confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial passage, easing fears of energy supply disruption. This helped push WTI crude oil down more than 7% toward the $80 area, improving global risk sentiment and supporting equity markets. Lower oil prices weakened the US dollar and supported EUR/USD, which has now broken above the key resistance at 1.1825, continuing the bullish move that star

Gold is losing momentum after failing twice to break above $4860 and is now holding near $4787 support. Weak bounce attempts suggest sellers may be gaining control. A break below this level could shift the outlook sideways to lower, with $4750 and $4700 becoming the next key downside targets. Precious metals are still moving inversely to US yields and the US dollar, but the stronger short-term influence right now is rising energy prices. Gold’s recent correlations show a stro

Australia’s labour market remains steady, with unemployment holding at 4.3% in March, matching expectations. Employment rose 18,000, supported by a strong 53,000 increase in full-time jobs, while hours worked also increased. Although underemployment edged slightly higher, overall labour conditions still point to ongoing wage and inflation pressure. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations jumped to 5.9%, the highest since late 2022, partly due to higher oil prices. T

Markets are becoming more optimistic that Middle East tensions may ease after signals that US–Iran negotiations could restart. This has pressured the US dollar and oil, while supporting equities and risk assets. USD/JPY could move toward 1.56 if a lasting ceasefire is confirmed. Policy expectations are also weighing on the dollar. Markets expect the Federal Reserve may ease later this year, while other central banks, including the Bank of Japan, appear relatively more hawkish

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing weakness, with price heading toward a third straight weekly decline and a fourth consecutive daily drop, now about 2.6% below its yearly high. The earlier rally was rejected near the 100.15–100.42 resistance zone, which capped the upside move. Today’s PPI data came in negative, with core PPI m/m at 0.1% (below 0.4% forecast) and headline PPI m/m at 0.5% (below 1.1% forecast). This adds to the recent pressure on the dollar. Technically, DXY

Even though the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, markets are becoming more optimistic that US–Iran negotiations may continue and eventually lead to a deal. This optimism has reduced fears of a worst-case energy shock, helping oil prices pull back slightly and easing pressure on risk sentiment, which is limiting strong upside momentum in gold for now. At the same time, uncertainty around how quickly a deal can happen is still keeping inflation expectations and bond yields supp

50EUR/USD and GBP/USD moved higher after renewed optimism about a possible US–Iran deal, which reduced fears of energy supply disruption. As oil prices pulled back, both the US dollar and crude weakened, supporting the euro and pound since Europe is a major energy importer. Lower oil helped improve risk sentiment and pushed both pairs to fresh highs. Technically, EUR/USD broke above 1.1675 ( 50 & 200 DMA levels) and 1.1740, with 1.1740 now acting as support. If price holds ab

After the US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, gold may start to weaken further. The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen soon, which could keep oil prices high, lift inflation expectations and bond yields, and add pressure on gold and risk assets. Markets may react strongly to Middle East headlines again this week. Gold’s recent rebound from around $4,100 was supported by a weaker US dollar and lower yields, but right now, geopolitics is the main driver, while

US core PCE came in line with expectations, while today’s core CPI, CPI, and CPI y/y all came lower than forecast. This weaker US inflation data is supporting euro strength, along with improving energy security conditions in Europe. Technically, the 1.1740 area has turned into immediate resistance, which was previously a swing low. A pullback from this level could create buying opportunities targeting the 1.1800 area. On the downside, 1.1713 is the immediate support, while 1.