USD has weakened after de-escalation signals in the Middle East, including comments from Donald Trump about suspending possible military action against Iran. This reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar across major pairs and helped push USD/JPY lower. Importantly, the move happened without intervention from the Bank of Japan, showing the decline was mainly driven by improving market sentiment rather than policy action. Technically,USD/JPY has dropped sharply to around 15

GBP/USD is under pressure near 1.3220 as a stronger US dollar and rising risk aversion continue to weigh on the pair. Higher oil prices linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed US Treasury yields higher and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, supporting the dollar. Sterling remains weak despite a more cautious tone from the Bank of England. Policymakers are moving toward a wait-and-see approach as en

The US dollar still looks supported mainly because of the strong move in USD/JPY. The 160.00 level remains a key focus, as traders believe the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance of Japan could step in if the yen weakens too much. A similar intervention happened in 2024 near this level and helped stabilise the yen, partly supported by softer US inflation data at that time. However, there is also a risk that authorities may allow the pair to move higher, just like in 202

Gold rose about 4% over the week, even though it dropped around 1.7% on Friday. The outlook now depends heavily on developments in the Iran conflict, especially after Trump gave Iran 48 hours to make a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Even though geopolitical risks usually support gold, the recent strength in the US dollar and rising bond yields are limiting upside. Higher oil prices are increasing inflation concerns, which keeps expectations of higher interest rates for

EUR/USD has broken above the rectangle pattern. Today's expectation of a probable 45-day ceasefire of the war in Iran is adding more strength to bulls, as energy seems to be the driving factor for EUR/USD currently. The price is broken above the 1.1550 area. On the upside, the next target is near 1.1628, with further resistance near 1.1675 (200-day SMA). On the downside, 1.1510 remains near-term support, which is also the lower line of the rectangle. A weekly close below this

The March NFP report came in stronger than expected, with 178K jobs added compared to the 65K forecast, and the unemployment rate improved to 4.3%. However, wage growth slowed to 0.2%, which slightly reduces inflation pressure. Overall, the strong jobs data support the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates soon, especially with inflation still above target. However, market reaction has been limited despite the positive NFP report, showing there is st

Markets expect the March NFP report to show about 65K new jobs, 0.3% monthly wage growth, and unemployment at 4.4%.Even so, Middle East tensions and the risk of a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz are currently the main drivers of markets. Because of this, geopolitical developments may have a bigger impact on the US dollar than the jobs data unless there is a large surprise. With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, markets now see about an 80% chanc

Outlook for GBP/USD is mixed, with the pound facing pressure from rising energy costs, weaker growth expectations, and uncertainty around how the Bank of England will respond to higher inflation. UK inflation is expected to rise toward 3.5% to 4.0%, mainly due to the energy shock, but slowing growth increases the risk of a stagflation environment. While markets are currently pricing possible rate hikes, the more likely scenario is that the BoE pauses and waits for clearer sig

Expectations that the conflict involving Donald J. Trump and the Strait of Hormuz may ease are supporting the euro. Reduced risk of oil supply disruption and weaker support for continued conflict from major Western countries are improving sentiment toward Europe, which helps EUR/USD move higher. Also, euro area inflation keeps supporting expectations of future ECB tightening; the pair is likely to stay supported and gradually move higher. Technically, the recent bearish move

The US dollar outlook for April was slightly bearish because of its usual seasonal weakness and improving global risk sentiment. However, the latest statement from the Iranian Parliament suggesting the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen and that negotiations are not taking place increases geopolitical uncertainty. This raises safe haven demand and can support the US dollar in the short term instead of allowing it to weaken. From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index is s