Gold Struggles for Direction as Geopolitics Keeps Market in Range

Even though the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, markets are becoming more optimistic that US–Iran negotiations may continue and eventually lead to a deal. This optimism has reduced fears of a worst-case energy shock, helping oil prices pull back slightly and easing pressure on risk sentiment, which is limiting strong upside momentum in gold for now.

At the same time, uncertainty around how quickly a deal can happen is still keeping inflation expectations and bond yields supported, which continues to act as a short-term headwind for gold. Because of this mixed situation, gold remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines rather than economic data.

Technical levels remain the same as yesterday's analysis. $4,800 to $4,850 remains a strong resistance. A break above this area could open the way toward $5,000. Support levels are $4,700, $4,600, $4,550, and $4,400 as the key support. Overall, gold is likely to stay range-bound between $4,400 and $5,000 for now, with trading expected to remain headline-driven until a clear breakout happens.

Overall, gold is likely to remain range-bound between $4,600 and $5,000 in the near term, with trading expected to stay headline-driven until clearer progress appears in US–Iran negotiations or a technical breakout occurs.

XAU/USD Daily Chart