Gold is facing short-term weakness and indecision after falling nearly 2% over the last three sessions and failing to move closer to the $5,000 level. Buying interest remains limited as risk appetite improves and investors shift toward risk assets instead of safe-haven assets like gold. Expectations of possible US–Iran negotiations and rising market confidence are reducing demand for gold. At the same time, activity in the gold futures market has slightly increased recently,

If US–Iran negotiations continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, geopolitical risk is likely to stay lower. This reduces safe-haven demand for the US dollar and can keep the dollar slightly weaker in the short term, especially as falling oil prices remove some inflation pressure. However, the downside in the dollar may remain limited unless the geopolitical situation improves more clearly and permanently. Despite broader USD softness, USD/JPY has stayed relatively stro

If negotiations between the US and Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz stays open, the biggest immediate effect is lower geopolitical risk. That usually reduces the safe-haven demand for the US dollar, which can keep the dollar capped or slightly weaker. Progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict is generally negative to slightly bearish for the dollar in the short term, mainly because oil falls and safe-haven demand fades. But the move is likel

The dollar index is expected to remain under pressure since it hasn't risen since April 13th. The Swiss Franc (CHF) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) have made the most substantial gains against the USD since then, and there is still potential for further gains. Therefore, selling USD/CHF and USD/CAD might be a better strategy than buying EUR/USD, buying GBP/USD, or selling USD/JPY. More details and key levels are available in the video.

The US dollar remains under pressure as improving risk sentiment and easing uncertainty around the Middle East conflict support global equities and weaken demand for safe-haven flows. Technically, the US Dollar Index has slipped below its 200-day EMA and is now testing support near 97.40, suggesting recent rebounds may only be corrective, with downside risks still dominant unless the index pushes toward 98.95 resistance first. Correlations across major FX pairs remain very st

Gold remains in a wait-and-see phase as rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence oil prices, the US dollar, and bond yields. Although gold briefly dropped, it recovered toward last week’s closing levels, showing markets are still cautious rather than fully risk-off. Technically, gold is facing strong resistance between $4,800 and $4,850. A daily close above $4,850 could confirm a bullish move toward $5,000, especially if negotiations improve and risk

Fresh headlines that the Strait of Hormuz has been shut again, along with reports of a seized Iranian cargo ship and renewed threats from Donald Trump, have increased geopolitical tensions and added pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Higher oil prices are negative for both Europe and the UK because they are major energy importers, raising risks to growth. Despite this, market reactions remain limited as traders expect possible sudden policy or negotiation updates, which have re

Recent headlines from Abbas Araghchi (Iran's foreign minister) and Donald Trump confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial passage, easing fears of energy supply disruption. This helped push WTI crude oil down more than 7% toward the $80 area, improving global risk sentiment and supporting equity markets. Lower oil prices weakened the US dollar and supported EUR/USD, which has now broken above the key resistance at 1.1825, continuing the bullish move that star

Gold is losing momentum after failing twice to break above $4860 and is now holding near $4787 support. Weak bounce attempts suggest sellers may be gaining control. A break below this level could shift the outlook sideways to lower, with $4750 and $4700 becoming the next key downside targets. Precious metals are still moving inversely to US yields and the US dollar, but the stronger short-term influence right now is rising energy prices. Gold’s recent correlations show a stro

Australia’s labour market remains steady, with unemployment holding at 4.3% in March, matching expectations. Employment rose 18,000, supported by a strong 53,000 increase in full-time jobs, while hours worked also increased. Although underemployment edged slightly higher, overall labour conditions still point to ongoing wage and inflation pressure. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations jumped to 5.9%, the highest since late 2022, partly due to higher oil prices. T