US-Iran Peace Framework Sparks Risk Shift Across Global Markets

Markets are unwinding geopolitical risk after a US-Iran memorandum of understanding paved the way for a potential peace deal within 60 days. Brent crude and the US dollar have weakened as traders reduce war hedges, while gold has broken higher despite improving sentiment, reflecting continued uncertainty around Iran's nuclear programme and the durability of the agreement.

From a technical perspective, Brent is approaching key support around $80 with momentum still favouring further downside, while the US Dollar Index is testing an important support zone that could open the door to additional losses if it breaks lower. EUR/USD has pushed above near-term resistance but faces a major barrier around 1.1670 and its key moving averages, making further gains challenging.

Gold continues to strengthen after breaking above $4240, with bullish momentum improving and higher resistance levels now coming into focus. Although markets have welcomed the peace framework, unresolved geopolitical risks mean volatility could remain elevated in the weeks ahead.