As 2025 began, the US dollar entered the year with strong momentum, supported by the US exceptionalism narrative and expectations of continued USD outperformance. EUR/USD was widely expected to push toward parity, and bullish USD positioning was crowded. However, less than two weeks into the new year, both DXY and EUR/USD marked key inflection points that would go on to define much of the year’s price action. Since then, the broader USD complex has transitioned into a prolong

Gold continues to trade at record highs, extending its rally into the first half of Tuesday as investors lean further into safe-haven assets. The move higher has been driven by a sharp deterioration in global risk sentiment, with renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Europe adding to uncertainty. With both political and currency dynamics aligned, the near-term gold forecast remains constructive. Macro and Geopolitical Drivers The latest leg higher in gol

The US dollar came under broad selling pressure after President Trump reignited trade-war risks by threatening tariffs on countries opposing his Greenland proposal. Markets appear to be treating the rhetoric as destabilising and inflationary rather than growth-positive, prompting renewed USD selling across major pairs. Despite the US public holiday muting volumes, price action and technical signals point to a meaningful shift in near-term dollar momentum. Macro Backdrop Trump

Summary The Japanese yen continues to underperform even in conditions that would typically support it, highlighting a clear shift in what is driving price action. Domestic fiscal concerns linked to Japan’s upcoming lower house election are dominating sentiment, while persistent carry demand is adding further pressure. With these forces working together, the broader bias for USD/JPY remains skewed to the upside. Risk-Off Dynamics Losing Influence Recent price behaviour has cal

EUR/USD is firming as renewed Washington-driven volatility weighs on the US dollar. President Trump’s latest tariff threat against several European nations has revived elements of the earlier “Sell America” trade, prompting a pullback in the dollar and relative underperformance in US equity futures. The euro has responded by rebounding from its 200-day moving average, with price action now focused on whether this episode fades or extends in the days ahead. Macro Backdrop The

The US Dollar has extended its late-December rebound for a third consecutive week, recovering nearly 1.8% from the Christmas Eve low. This advance has now carried DXY into a key Fibonacci retracement zone, where upside momentum is being tested. Price action from here will be important in determining whether this rebound develops into a more durable base or stalls into consolidation. Technical Outlook The recent rally has retraced a meaningful portion of the November decline,

Dollar Outlook: Can the Recovery Extend? The US dollar has gradually strengthened over recent weeks, supported by firmer macro data and resilient economic signals. Retail sales and jobless claims have surprised to the upside, while the Fed’s Beige Book continues to describe an economy expanding at a measured pace with no clear signs of labour market stress. Latest initial jobless claims fell below 200,000, pulling the four-week average to its lowest level in nearly two years.

The Japanese yen remains firmly in focus into the end of the week, continuing to exhibit elevated volatility relative to other major currencies. USD/JPY saw a sharp pullback during the Asian session, briefly dipping to the 157.97 area following renewed verbal intervention from Japan’s finance minister, Katayama. The pair has since recovered toward 158.30, though it remains capped below earlier highs around 158.60 to 158.70. While verbal intervention from Tokyo officials is no

GBP/AUD has delivered a decisive technical breakdown, finally holding below the psychological 2.000 level after weeks of compression. This move stands out from the four failed attempts since late October, as price has now closed beneath the figure for the first time since early 2025. The break releases significant downside pressure and shifts the near-term bias clearly lower. What was particularly notable is that Sterling failed to sustain gains even after an upside surprise

Japanese policymakers are increasingly caught between two competing priorities: defending domestic interest rates or defending the Yen. Sustained currency weakness risks importing inflation, while higher rates threaten an economy that has spent decades battling deflationary forces. With Japanese government bond yields pushing sharply higher and the Yen remaining under pressure, authorities are operating in largely uncharted territory with no clear historical roadmap. Since th