USD/CHF Tests Major Support at 2011 Lows

USD/CHF is trading near its lowest levels in more than ten years, just above the 2011 close low around 0.7669. After a sharp drop from the January highs, price has been stuck in a tight February range, with sellers unable to secure a clear weekly close below key support. This long consolidation suggests a larger breakout may be close.

If USD/CHF breaks and closes below 0.7669, it would signal a continuation of the broader downtrend, with downside targets near 0.7537 and 0.7410. On the upside, resistance stands at 0.7769/71, then 0.7872/74. A sustained move above 0.7874 would suggest a stronger recovery is underway, opening the door toward 0.7927 and possibly 0.8041.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

In short, the pair is compressing at major long term support, and the next breakout should guide direction into March. With Swiss GDP, US PPI, retail sales and Non Farm Payrolls ahead, traders should watch weekly closes closely as event risk could trigger the next major move.