Oil Holds Bullish Bias as Trump Rejects Iran Proposal and Hormuz Risks Intensify

Oil prices remain strongly influenced by Middle East tensions, Hormuz supply disruptions, and uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations. Recent comments rejecting Iran’s latest peace proposal, along with continued tanker and supply risks, are helping keep crude prices elevated above key levels.

OPEC’s latest meeting showed unity within the group and announced a small production increase, but supply concerns remain the bigger driver as long as Hormuz disruptions continue affecting global flows.

Technically, crude oil still has a bullish bias while prices remain above the key support zones around $91 for WTI. However, markets are also showing signs of indecision, with repeated rejection below the $120 area.

The base case remains a wide trading range between $91 and $115 if supply disruptions continue without major escalation or peace agreement. A diplomatic breakthrough could push prices back toward $78, while a severe geopolitical escalation could trigger a breakout above $120.

Bottom line: Oil markets remain highly headline-driven, but continuous supply risks and Hormuz disruptions continue to support higher prices unless diplomacy meaningfully improves the situation.

WTI Daily Chart