Gold Outlook: Range Trading Continues with Downside Risk

Gold is trading heavy despite a risk-on environment, after being rejected from the $4660 resistance on the H4 timeframe. Price is now moving inside a structure that looks like a rising wedge, which usually signals potential downside, but the pattern is not fully confirmed since the upper trendline has not been properly tested.

For now, there is no clear directional bias, as momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are neutral. Price is sitting in the middle of the range, so it’s better to wait for clearer price action near key levels.

If price moves higher and gets rejected again at $4660, short setups could be considered targeting $4600 and then $4580 (wedge support). A break below the wedge would open the door toward $4560 and possibly the $4510 (April swing low).

On the other hand, if the price drops to support and bounces, longs could be considered, targeting a move back toward $4660.

XAU/USD 4 Hour Chart

Bottom line: Gold is in a neutral and indecisive phase. The structure hints at the downside, but confirmation is missing. Traders should focus on price action at key levels rather than taking a fixed directional view.