Gold Outlook: Rally Seeks Confirmation Above $4600 as Anti-Fiat Theme Persists

Gold Extends Structural Uptrend Despite Broader FX Consolidation

While much of the FX space remains range-bound, with the US dollar grinding sideways and major currency pairs lacking clear directional conviction, gold continues to stand apart. The metal has been in a sustained uptrend for nearly two years, with higher highs and higher lows defining price action since early 2024.

Importantly, periods of pullback have repeatedly attracted bearish sentiment, with expectations of mean reversion to prior ranges. Yet each corrective phase has ultimately resolved higher, reinforcing the broader bullish trend rather than invalidating it. This behavior continues to highlight gold’s role as a preferred expression of the ongoing anti-fiat trade.

Macro Backdrop Continues to Favor Gold

The fundamental environment remains supportive. Gold stands out as a top structural trade into 2026, particularly as long as US inflation remains contained enough to prevent a meaningful shift toward tighter monetary policy. Absent a scenario that forces the Federal Reserve to reassert hawkish control, or a political shift that materially constrains fiscal spending in the latter stages of the current administration, the macro backdrop continues to lean in gold’s favor.

At the same time, the breakout in Bitcoin beyond the 95k region reflects a parallel expression of the same theme rather than a replacement. Risk diversification within anti-fiat assets does not necessarily cap gold’s upside, but it does introduce positioning considerations as capital allocates across multiple stores of value.

Positioning and Sentiment: The Emerging Complication

As trends mature, positioning becomes increasingly relevant. While fundamentals may justify higher prices, markets rarely move in straight lines. Human behaviour, particularly profit-taking after extended runs, continues to shape price action even within strong structural trends.

This dynamic was clearly visible in prior consolidation patterns, including the bull pennants that formed during last year’s advance. These formations reflected hesitation and digestion within the broader uptrend, ultimately resolving in continuation. Similar behaviour is beginning to emerge again as gold probes higher levels.

Technical Picture: Stability Still Being Tested Above $4600

Gold has printed fresh all-time highs, but price action above the $4600/oz region has yet to fully stabilize. Similar to prior tests near $4550, rallies into this zone have attracted profit-taking, temporarily stalling upside momentum without invalidating the trend.

From a multi-timeframe perspective, the recent pullback and rebound sequence helped form a falling wedge structure, a bullish continuation pattern. The uneven nature of the prior decline, marked by stronger selling on pullbacks than on downside extensions, set the stage for last week’s breakout and the renewed push through $4500.

Momentum from the weekend open has kept prices elevated, but the market now faces the familiar challenge of converting breakout momentum into sustained acceptance.

XAU/USD 4hour Chart

Key Support Levels That Define Structure

At this stage, structure becomes more important than prediction. Several technical reference points stand out:

• $4600 remains the immediate psychological pivot and first line of trend validation.

• Below that, $4575 represents a near-term support zone that previously absorbed multiple tests before the latest breakout.

• $4550 remains a critical level, having acted as firm resistance in late December and yet to be retested as support.

• A deeper pullback could expose $4500, which previously capped price action and played a role in shaping last week’s consolidation.

  
  

As long as these zones hold in sequence, the broader bullish bias remains intact.

Strategy Considerations: Patience Over Chasing

Gold is clearly extended by multiple measures, and the risk of sharper pullbacks increases as trends become crowded. That does not imply an imminent reversal, but it does argue against chasing strength at elevated levels.

From a strategic standpoint, the focus shifts toward structure-based engagement rather than momentum chasing. If support holds within the outlined zones, upside potential continues to outweigh downside risk. If support fails, deeper corrective phases may unfold as profit-taking accelerates.

In one-sided markets, patience becomes an edge. Gold’s trend remains constructive, but disciplined positioning and respect for key levels will be critical as the rally seeks acceptance at higher ground.