Gold Finds Support at 4,300, but Seasonal Risks Remain

Gold is showing signs of forming a short-term bottom after successfully holding the key 4,300 support area. Recent price action, including a bullish weekly pin bar, and improving momentum signals suggests that buyers may be starting to regain control. As long as gold remains above 4,300, the technical outlook favours a move higher toward 4,630 (50 DMA level), with potential upside targets around 4,765.

However, traders should remain cautious. June has historically been the weakest month for gold, with negative average returns and a relatively low win rate. While seasonality does not guarantee future performance, it does suggest that bullish moves may face headwinds during the month.

In addition, futures market positioning remains relatively subdued, with total open interest at its lowest level in years and no clear sign of strong bullish participation returning to the market. While the near-term outlook points to a recovery, a sustained rally back toward 5,000 would likely require a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger demand from futures traders.

XAU/USD Daily Chart