Gold at a Critical Turning Point: Key Levels to Watch Before NFP

Gold had a big rally from its February low but is now losing momentum after failing to close above the key 5343 to 5378 resistance zone. Even though price briefly hit 5419, buyers could not hold the breakout. The metal has since dropped nearly 8% from the recent high and is now testing important support near 5031, which is the 38.2% retracement of the February rally.

If buyers defend 5031, the broader uptrend can remain intact. However, a break below this level would expose 4894, with 4791 becoming the key bullish invalidation level. Losses below 4791 would suggest a deeper correction is underway. Further support sits at 4660 and 4533 if selling accelerates.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

On the upside, resistance stands at 5279, then the critical 5343 to 5378 zone. A daily close above this area is needed to restart the rally and open the door toward 5520 to 5615. A sustained break above that region would confirm continuation of the multi year uptrend, with higher targets near 5768 and potentially 6000.

Fundamentally, Friday’s US Non Farm Payrolls report is critical. Markets have pushed the next Federal Reserve rate cut expectation to July. A stronger jobs report could delay cuts further and keep pressure on gold, especially as inflation uncertainty grows.