Gold Analysis: Record Highs Driven by Safe-Haven Demand

Gold Analysis: Record Highs Driven by Safe-Haven Demand

Gold continues to push into uncharted territory, reaching fresh record highs during the early European session. The metal is up roughly 10% over the past month and nearly 70% in 2025, reflecting a powerful combination of geopolitical risk and shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy.

Safe-haven demand remains the primary driver. Escalating geopolitical tensions, including renewed conflict risks in Eastern Europe and uncertainty surrounding global energy and trade dynamics, are encouraging investors to seek protection in Gold. At the same time, expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 continue to support the metal by lowering the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

From a macro perspective, markets are closely watching incoming U.S. data, starting with the preliminary Q3 GDP reading. Growth is expected to slow to 3.2% from 3.8% in Q2. A stronger-than-expected result could offer temporary support to the U.S. dollar and cap Gold’s upside in the short term, while weaker data would likely reinforce the bullish narrative. Additional releases, including Durable Goods Orders, Industrial Production, and employment data, may also influence near-term volatility.

Technical Outlook

The broader trend remains firmly bullish. Gold continues to trade above its 100-day EMA, while expanding Bollinger Bands signal strengthening upside momentum. However, the 14-day RSI is above 70, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests that while the trend is intact, short-term consolidation or pullbacks cannot be ruled out before the next leg higher.

A sustained move higher could open the path toward the 4,400 psychological level, followed by 4,450 if momentum holds. On the downside, initial support sits near 4,338, with

a deeper buffer around the 4,300 area.

Bottom Line

Gold’s uptrend remains well supported by macro uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy. While momentum is strong, stretched technical conditions suggest traders should remain mindful of short-term pauses within an otherwise bullish structure.