Gold After a Record Run: What Comes Next in 2026

Gold heads into 2026 after one of its strongest years on record. Driven by heavy central bank buying, global rate cuts, and strong safe-haven demand, prices surged more than 70% in 2025 and posted multiple record highs.

The key question now is whether gold can hold those gains in 2026. The long-term bullish case is still intact, and it remains difficult to argue for aggressive downside. However, the macro backdrop looks more balanced than it did last year. Central bank buying may slow at higher prices, much of the global easing cycle is already priced in, bond yields remain elevated, and easing geopolitical tensions could reduce safe-haven demand.

After such a powerful rally, expectations for another explosive year look unrealistic. Gold may still push higher, possibly toward the $5,000 level, but 2026 is more likely to deliver consolidation rather than a repeat of 2025’s surge.

Central bank policy will be a major factor. While rates were cut across much of the world in 2025, expectations for further easing have faded. Some central banks may deliver one or two more cuts, but others are moving toward a pause or even tightening. The Bank of Japan is normalising policy, while several developed economies have signaled the end of their easing cycles. If global policy shifts toward less easing, it becomes harder for gold to extend its rally without new catalysts.

Central bank demand also bears close watching. Buying remained strong in 2025, but the pace slowed compared to previous years as prices rose sharply. China’s purchases have cooled, and several countries have already reduced gold reserves. If demand continues to ease at elevated prices, profit-taking could accelerate.

Geopolitical risks remain a support, but they are no longer intensifying. Discussions around Ukraine, a ceasefire in Gaza, and more stable US–China trade relations have reduced immediate tail risks. A softer US dollar helped gold in 2025, but its downside may be limited if inflation risks re-emerge. Rising Japanese yields also pose a risk, as any unwind of leveraged carry trades could pressure gold alongside other assets.

In summary, gold enters 2026 in a more balanced position. The long-term trend remains constructive, but many of the drivers that fueled the rally are losing momentum. Central bank buying, bond yields, and the true extent of future rate cuts will be critical. After an exceptional run, gold may need fresh catalysts to move meaningfully higher, and the risk of a corrective or sideways phase in 2026 should not be ignored.