GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Short-Term Structure Turns Fragile as Support Becomes the Battleground

Near-Term Trend Shifts After December Uptrend Break

GBP/USD has shifted into a more fragile short-term posture after breaking its December uptrend, following an exhaustion move just below key resistance. The failure near the upper resistance zone marked a clear change in near-term structure, with price retreating sharply from the highs before attempting to stabilize.

The pullback from peak levels measured close to 1.3%, highlighting the intensity of profit-taking once resistance capped the advance. While price has since rebounded modestly, the recovery has so far been corrective in nature rather than trend-restoring.

Weekly Opening Range Defines the Pivot Zone

The rebound earlier this week has established the weekly opening range as a critical near-term reference, sitting just above the 200-day moving average. This zone now acts as the primary pivot separating consolidation from continuation risk.

Price behaviour around this level will be decisive. A sustained break beyond the weekly opening range would suggest renewed stabilization, while failure to hold could open the door to a deeper corrective phase.

A daily close outside of this range is likely to define the next directional leg.

Resistance Zones Cap Upside Attempts

On the topside, multiple resistance layers remain intact:

• 1.3474 marks initial resistance, aligned with the yearly open.

• 1.3500–1.3502 represents a key invalidation zone, reinforced by retracement confluence and prior high-day closes.

• A stronger bullish shift would require a decisive break and close above 1.3528, with the broader resistance band near 1.3573–1.3593 remaining the ultimate ceiling.

As long as price remains below these levels, upside moves are likely to be corrective rather than trend-defining.

Support Levels Now Under Pressure

Support has become the focal point of the technical landscape:

• Immediate support rests at 1.3391–1.3395, coinciding with the weekly opening-range low and the 200-day moving average.

• Below that, deeper support objectives sit at 1.3345–1.3355, followed by 1.3318, both areas where downside momentum may begin to stall if tested.

• A sustained break below these zones would suggest a more meaningful top is forming, exposing risk toward 1.3269, the November high and a key structural reference.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Short-Term Bias and Trade Considerations

From a tactical standpoint, the break of the December channel tilts near-term risks to the downside. Unless GBP/USD can reclaim and hold above the 1.35 region, rallies are likely to encounter selling pressure.

A confirmed break below the weekly opening-range support would strengthen the case for continuation lower, while a recovery above key resistance would be needed to restore bullish control.

Event Risk and Outlook

Near-term event risk remains limited, allowing technical levels to carry greater weight. However, attention will shift toward upcoming UK employment and inflation data, alongside the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which may inject volatility into the pair.

Until clearer confirmation emerges, patience remains key. The weekly close should offer important guidance on whether the current move is a corrective pullback within a broader consolidation or the early stages of a more persistent decline.