February Forex Seasonality: Will History Hold or Will Fundamentals Take Over?

February’s usually a mixed bag for forex, but this year feels even more unpredictable. The US dollar stumbled in January, which doesn’t line up with its usual seasonal strength. Sure, history offers a guide, but right now, things like politics, central bank moves, and fresh economic numbers are running the show.

Looking back, EUR/USD has a habit of edging up a bit in February, about 0.3%. GBP/USD, on the other hand, tends to slip just slightly. USD/JPY and AUD/USD also usually lose a little ground, while USD/CAD often squeaks out a small gain. But honestly, those past patterns can get tossed aside pretty fast when strong US data, shifting central bank stances, or political surprises hit the market.

So, what’s the takeaway? Seasonality hints at some USD weakness against the euro and not much else. But with the way things are shaping up, traders really need to focus on what’s happening now—watch the fundamentals, pay attention to central banks, and keep an eye on the charts. This year’s already breaking the usual rules.