EUR/USD Resilient Despite Energy Risks

EUR/USD is starting to stabilize and may be forming a short-term bottom, even though energy risks and geopolitical tensions are still high. The market now seems to believe the worst energy shock scenario may not happen, and much of that risk is already priced in.

Even after strong warnings from Donald Trump and threats from Iran, the euro has stayed relatively stable. This shows the pair is holding support and not falling sharply.

Recent market drops are mostly happening in assets that had already moved up a lot earlier this year, like gold, equities, and riskier currencies. This suggests the move is more about traders closing positions rather than panic selling.

From a technical view, selling pressure is easing. On the weekly chart, a bullish engulfing pattern has already formed. Support is near 1.1450 and 1.1400, while resistance levels to watch are 1.1615 and 1.1683.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

Overall, risks are still there, but EUR/USD looks more stable for now and may continue building a base in the short term.