AUD/USD: Seasonal Support Meets Monthly Risk

AUD/USD is up about 0.95% this month, broadly in line with

its average December gain. While positive Decembers can

deliver strong upside, outcomes are often choppy and

unreliable, making a late-month breakout above 0.67 unlikely.

From a technical view, risks are building. A weak monthly

close near or below 0.65 could form a bearish shooting star

and hint at a double top near the yearly highs, especially

with January seasonality typically negative.

Short-term seasonality may still support a brief Santa rally.

after December 20, but correlations have weakened.

AUD/USD now relies more on equity strength than the US

dollar or yuan, meaning any year-end grind higher is likely

depends on firm stock markets.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

AUD/USD formed a bearish engulfing candle last week, but

not a full evening star, keeping the broader structure intact. A

pullback toward the 10 week EMA and 0.6580 is possible,

though dips are favored as seasonality turns supportive.

Daily signals remain constructive. RSI rebounded from

oversold, price held above the 20 day EMA, and the setup

points to a potential push higher. A retest of the weekly VPOC

near 0.6670 is in focus, with 0.67 and the 2025 high as upside

levels if risk appetite improves.